PREVIEW: The Moneyball Strategy That Has Basketballers On A Roll 

When Brad Ness took over as coach of Australia’s men’s wheelchair basketball team, the Rollers, he invited his Western Australian Institute of Sport colleague, data analyst Luke Mitchell, to look at the team’s performance indicators.  

Ness was stunned with what Mitchell produced.  

“I just said, ‘When did you get time to watch all those games?’ and he said he didn’t, it was all just off numbers.” 

The concern had been that the team rarely scored over 50 points in a match. Mitchell’s analysis legitimised Ness’s push for a more attacking style of play, utilising the Rollers’ three-point shooters, spreading the opposition to create space in the key, and backing it up with the team’s traditionally hard, physical defence.  

Mitchell’s numbers didn’t lie.  

“Now we’re up around the 70s, 80s and we put 90 on Canada,” Ness said of the 91-73 practice match win in Paris.  

“We’ve talked about points per shot. We were down around 0.8, we’ve brought it up to one and against Canada we got to 1.3.  

“It’s amazing, the guys have got right around Lukey. They call him the Moneyballer.” 

Captain Tristan Knowles smiles when ‘the Moneyballer’ is mentioned.  

“We’ve never had anyone who’s looked at the game like Luke does, breaking down and interpreting statistics in a way that makes our style of play so understandable,” Knowles said.  

“It brings such a sense of calm to the group.” 

It might also bring the success Australian wheelchair basketball desperately wants 12 years since their most recent Paralympic medal. Mitchell’s impact is one thing, but it’s just part of an overhaul of the Rollers program since Tokyo that included the appointment of Ness and his subsequent hiring of former teammate Brett Stibners and Darren Allie as his assistants.  

“Brad’s been big enough to surround himself with people who will question him at times,” Knowles said.  

“They all have this love for basketball and they’re always wondering how we can get better every time we play. What they come up with might only be worth two points a quarter. But that’s eight points a game, which can be the difference between a gold medal and finishing fifth.” 

There are plenty of weapons in the Rollers’ arsenal beside the revamped coaching roster. Bill Latham is a commanding presence under the basket, Tom O’Neill-Thorne is equally dominant beyond the three-point arc, and Class 1 players, Frank Pinder, Sam White and Jannik Blair, are nimble and clever.  

Throw in exciting debutants Jaylen Brown and Eithen Leard, alongside six-time Paralympians Knowles and Shaun Norris, and you have a team brimming with talent and soul.  

“The history of our team goes back a long way and there’s a great tradition,” said Ness, who was part of Rollers teams that won three consecutive Paralympic medals between 2004 and 2012, including gold at Beijing 2008. 

“But we probably lost that a little bit and it’s something we’ve tried to get back on track.  

“At the World Cup in Dubai [in 2022], we pretty much hit rock-bottom. Everyone was pretty flat. Tokyo wasn’t what we wanted, for a number of reasons, and then we went to Dubai and it was even worse. I remember talking to the guys about how, in our history, we hadn’t been that low before.  

“I think there was just this decision made by the senior guys, especially. They just wanted to go one more round and say, ‘We can be better, on and off the court’, and we started building from there. We had a big re-set and got going.” 

Ness said he wanted to allow his players to play a style that came naturally to them. Moneyballer Mitchell’s numbers made it a done deal. 

“So, what you’re going to see is a lot of threes, more so than you see in wheelchair basketball around the world. It’s not just to shoot the three, it’s to create space, open up the floor. It’s a more dynamic style of play and, if we’re on, it’s going to be pretty cool to watch.” 

There’s no time to be anything but ‘on’. The Australians play an in-form Netherlands, perennial world medallist Spain and world No.1 USA in their Group B pool matches. Slip up and it’s over. Go through and the dream will be tantalisingly close.  

“You’ve got to have a bit of arrogance about you at this level,” Ness said.  

“I think we’re 20 [wins] of 23 games since January. We’ve beaten the Tokyo silver medallists, beaten the bronze medallists from the Worlds, beaten the US a couple of months ago… We’re going to have a shot, that’s for sure.” 

Knowles’ take is similar.  

“Ordinarily you might be a bit careful about broadcasting how well things are going,” he said. 

“But I think over the past 12 months the way we’ve performed has been really good. Just qualifying was an achievement, with only one spot available in our zone. We had to get through Japan, the Paralympic silver medallist, and Iran, the number three in the world. 

“We tested our strategy, the blueprint that Brad asked us to commit to and we started to see the results really quickly.” 

Knowles is glad he stayed involved after the disappointment of Tokyo and the ill-fated 2022 World Championships.  

“A lot of our core players stuck around,” he said. “We feel like custodians and we weren’t prepared to leave the program like that. We felt it deserved better and we knew that we didn’t need wholesale changes, we just needed some fresh ideas.  

“Having not been in the final of a major event for 10 years now, we’re confident that we’re well prepared and ready to go.” 

Watch the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games on the 9Network and 9Now live and free, and on Stan Sport from August 28 to September 8.

By: David Sygall, Paralympics Australia

Published: 28 August 2024